Trump-Harris debate looms as campaigns ratchet up

PHILADELPHIA (CN) — President Joe Biden may be out of the race, but the show must go on. And the next episode of the show involves a debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

ABC News will host the second presidential debate of 2024 — and first between Trump and Harris — on Sept. 10. The battle between former president and current vice president, held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, comes about under unusual circumstances.

Originally, the debate was agreed to by Trump and President Joe Biden. But chatter regarding 81-year-old Biden’s perceived cognitive decline swelled into partisan panic after a disastrous first debate against Trump on June 27 led several of the Democratic Party’s senior most members to call for his withdrawal from the race.

“There was such a strong repulsion after his performance,” said Laura Wilson, associate political science professor at the University of Indianapolis. “Even when there had been a lot of criticism toward Biden before, it was unavoidable after that debate.”

Biden eventually heeded their calls, ending his reelection bid on July 21 and endorsing Harris. The candidacy turnover reinvigorated Democratic support — Harris’ campaign raised over $81 million in its first 24 hours and $200 million in its first week, according to campaign sources.

However, while Harris’ sudden rise to presidential candidate brought new life to her party, it’s left her with little time to present her experience and platform to potential voters.

With millions of Americans set to tune in on Sept. 10, it’s critical that Harris use her time on stage to solidify her political identity beyond her role as Biden’s understudy according to Temple University associate political science professor Michael Hagan.

“She needs to define herself in a way that can convey personal qualities and positions early and favorably before Trump can define her,” Hagan said. “She needs to be able to defend herself against those attacks — and be not just defensive, but provide a positive, affirmative statement of her own policies and stances.”

Villanova University political science professor David Barrett agreed, suggesting that a more upbeat approach toward her opponent would weaken Trump’s oft-employed ridicule-based attacks.

“She needs to let Trump be Trump and brush him off,” Barrett said. “If he’s gonna be angry, I think she needs to let him do that and find a way to effectively brush it off in a positive way. She’s got this momentum she’s built…the more joyful approach has worked for her.”

Defending herself against personal attacks while presenting an affable aura won’t be an easy needle for Harris to thread though, Wilson said, particularly as the first woman to be U.S. vice president seeks to convince undecided voters that she’s capable of becoming the nation's first woman commander-in-chief.

“It’s very difficult, I think, as a female candidate to emphasize this,” Wilson said. “To seem warm and appealing, to have some elements of humor, but also be strong and aggressive — but not too firm, because people see that as being ‘bitchy.’”

Across the aisle, political experts suggest Trump could also benefit from a less aggressive approach on the debate stage. While a hard-nosed attitude is reflected in much of his political identity, leaning too hard on personal attacks — an approach he’s often taken during campaigns — could prove distasteful to undecided voters, said Dan Mallinson, associate public policy professor at Penn State.

“It’s hard with Trump — he sort of is who he is,” Mallinson said. “I think his biggest risk is his disdain for her coming across….Running roughshod over Harris or being highly disrespectful of Harris, I think, is going to be problematic.”

In lieu of personal attacks, Barrett suggested Trump could find success on the debate stage by focusing on policy and pinning several prominent criticisms of the Biden administration on Harris.

“I think his advisers are pretty smart to say to him, 'Look, focus on the border, and immigration, and the chaotic and deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan,’” Barrett said. “He may decide that his advisers are right and really launch into her on issues like economics, inflation…I think he can do really well in the debate by just mostly focusing on those things.”

Just as the presidential election cycle has seen a litany of unusual events — from Biden’s exit to Trump’s legal troubles and assassination attempt — the Sept. 10 presidential debate is set to present its own oddities.

For one, the presidential debate is set to become the second earliest in U.S. history, eclipsed only by the Biden-Trump debate in June. Wilson said this shift toward earlier presidential debates is likely a response to the decadeslong lengthening of the American campaign cycle.

“We used to see, 50, 60 years ago, that the day after Labor Day would be the kickoff for the general election,” she said. "We wouldn’t have talked about it. We wouldn’t have focused on it. Campaigns would have taken the summer off after primaries.”

However, as candidates sought to build momentum before their opponents even started a general campaign, their campaigns began courting constituents earlier in the calendar year. This, coupled with a recent uptick in early voting and mail-in ballots, led candidates to see earlier debates as a natural evolution.

Additionally, both the upcoming and previous debates mark the first instances since 1988 where the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns held debates outside the control of the Commission on Presidential Debates, a nonprofit corporation.

The June debate, organized and hosted by CNN, featured a series of formatting changes from previous years, including no audience and candidates’ microphones only turned on when it was their turn to speak.

The Sept. 10 debate will see an identical ruleset — although not without controversy.

While the Trump campaign accepted the ruleset, Harris’ campaign has repeatedly pushed ABC News to allow both candidates’ microphones to remain on for the duration of the debate.

The Harris campaign’s push for new rules hasn’t even been ABC News’ biggest headache over the debate, though — in a series of Truth Social posts Aug. 2, Trump said his agreement to the Sept. 10 debate had “been terminated” due to Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race. Instead, he said, he would appear on Fox News for a Sept. 4 debate against Harris.

“I’ll see her on September 4th, or I won’t see her at all,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

However, by the end of August, Trump had fully recommitted to the Sept. 10 debate on ABC News.

With the debate rules likely solidified and Trump seemingly back on board, both candidates have a key opportunity to set the election’s tone leading into the final eight weeks before Election Day.

“It might be the most important moment of their campaigns,” Wilson said. “I don't think it's the last moment that people will hinge their decisions on, because we still have several weeks. But I think this is by far the most important moment.”

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