Brazil edges closer to tying ex-President Jair Bolsonaro to supposed coup plot

“Here the risk was greater than in the United States, as Brazil has a tradition of military coups,” she said, adding that the country is still very dependent on political authorities to protect the rule of law.

One day after the Jan. 8 attacks, the Federal Police arrested 2,151 people, releasing 745 after identification and granting provisional freedom to 884. By Nov. 8, 2024, 741 defendants had already been held criminally responsible.

In June 2023, the Superior Electoral Court convicted Bolsonaro for abuse of power and misuse of the media, focusing on the same meeting with ambassadors. The ruling rendered him ineligible to run for office through the end of the decade.

“Democracy in Brazil is younger than in America, but it has provided a more effective solution to those responsible than what we’ve seen in the United States,” said Carlos Pereira, a political science professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas and author of “Por que a democracia brasileira não morreu?” or “Why hasn’t Brazilian democracy died?” published in June.

Meanwhile, Jefferson Rodrigues Barbosa, a political science professor at Universidade Estadual Paulista in Marília and author of "Extremismo Políticos e Direitas, Bolsonaro, Trump e a Crise das Democracias" ("Political Extremism and the Right: Bolsonaro, Trump, and the Crisis of Democracies"), published in 2022, argued that the punishments are “moving slowly and very mildly given the gravity of what happened.”

Scott Mainwaring, a political science professor at the University of Notre Dame who studies Latin American politics, questioned what he described as excessive interventionism by some Brazilian judges. “Although I generally agree with the decisions, I believe that by American standards, these are behaviors that exceed what is appropriate and could be a problem if they become the norm,” he said.

At the same time, he faulted the U.S. system for a “very, very slow response,” noting that “most of the criminal cases against Donald Trump never went to trial,” partly, in his view, because the U.S. Supreme Court helped protect him.

Brazilian courts’ response to the Jan. 8 attacks has stirred debate over possible judicial overreach. Many of the more than 2,000 people who were arrested shortly afterward face charges that could lead to extended prison terms. Most rioters have been charged with vandalism or conspiracy to undermine democratic institutions, with sentences varying based on the degree of involvement — from monetary penalties or probation-like conditions for lesser offenses to potential prison time for more serious charges. As investigations continue to uncover alleged coup plots, prosecutors have also weighed more severe offenses against those suspected of orchestrating or financing the unrest.

Observers note the prominent roles of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) — then led by Justice Alexandre de Moraes — in both criminal and electoral matters, an approach supporters say is warranted by Brazil’s history of coups but critics contend risks infringing due process. Unlike the decentralized U.S. system, where courts at various levels handle election disputes, Brazil’s TSE draws judges from its highest courts, consolidating authority in a single body.

González acknowledged that at the time of the attacks, the Brazilian judiciary “seemed to act excessively,” but considered the Supreme Court the “guarantor of the transition process,” necessary to ensure order.

“Unlike the United States, where the office itself has a sense of value and is almost sacred, in Brazil it is very easy to replace presidents,” he said. “Political institutions have a low level of credibility; people trust the president personally, not the presidency.”

If charged and convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 28 years in prison; that maximum might jump to 70 if charges involving vaccination card fraud, the illegal sale of jewelry received from Saudi Arabia and unauthorized surveillance of authorities are combined.

González, however, thinks imprisonment is unlikely. “The process could drag on, and Bolsonaro has certain advantages — including his age — that make prison less likely. In the end, it’s more probable this will end his political career than land him in jail,” he said.

Despite the legal pressures, analysts believe Bolsonarismo — a political movement marked by nationalism, social conservatism and anti-establishment rhetoric — remains a significant political force, and they do not rule out further attempts to target government institutions.

The most recent of these incidents took place on Nov. 13, when a suicide bombing at the landmark Praça dos Três Poderes in Brasília claimed only the life of its perpetrator — a city council candidate from Bolsonaro’s party.

“We are not and have never been free from coup attempts. Even though Brazil had a few years of relative democratic stability, the idea of a coup is always in the air,” González said.

Pereira remains somewhat optimistic: “Will we be free from coup attempts and autocrats? No. But we are sure that if attempts come, we will be ready.”