In a test of power, Trump and Petro will meet at the White House

BUENOS AIRES (CN) — Donald Trump and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro will meet at the White House on Tuesday, marking yet another turn in their zigzagging diplomatic — and deeply personal — relationship, one that has oscillated between open confrontation and cautious engagement.

The meeting comes one month after the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, where Nicolás Maduro, then president, was captured by American military forces and flown alongside his wife to New York, where both are now standing trial on narcoterrorism charges. The operation sent shockwaves across Latin America, not only for its unprecedented nature but also for the signal it sent about Washington’s renewed willingness to act unilaterally in the region.

Petro, one of Maduro’s starkest allies in Latin America, was among the few regional leaders willing to openly defy Trump’s foreign policy toward the Americas during the first year of Trump’s ongoing mandate. Petro criticized U.S. actions in the region and framed Washington’s posture as imperial overreach, placing himself at odds with an administration that has shown little tolerance for dissent from hemispheric partners. In recent weeks, however, the tone on both sides has shifted markedly, transforming once-open antagonists into tentative negotiators.

“If we don’t speak, there’s war,” Petro said weeks ago, after an hourlong phone conversation with Trump shortly after Maduro’s capture. The remark underscored both the fragility of the moment and Petro’s own framing of diplomacy as a necessary alternative to escalation. Just a day after the operation in Caracas, Trump had accused Petro of cocaine trafficking and of threatening the United States, rhetoric that coincided with severe sanctions Washington had imposed on the Colombian leader months earlier.

“Petro realized Trump is being serious,” said Sergio Guzmán, head of the Colombian political consultancy Risk Analysis. “And if the sanctions remain, he’s not going to be able to go on with his life after he leaves office in August.”

According to Guzmán, Petro has long sought to position himself as a global voice against imperialism, projecting his political identity beyond Colombia’s borders. But that ambition could be sharply constrained once he leaves office. Petro’s term ends in August 2026, and analysts say continued U.S. sanctions could severely limit his ability to travel, engage internationally or maintain an active political profile abroad.

A special five-day visa was issued for Petro and his team to travel to D.C. after their visas had been revoked last year.

“This moment can be described as a structurally tense relationship going through a coyunturally conciliatory phase,” said Jenaro Abraham, a Latin America expert at Gonzaga University. In his view, the meeting reflects tactical calculations on both sides rather than a genuine reset in bilateral relations.

Abraham said that rather than pushing Petro into a scenario of open confrontation, Trump may see political advantage in weakening him domestically, portraying him as isolated or ineffective as his term winds down. Such a strategy, Abraham added, could reverberate inside Colombia’s already polarized political landscape.

Indeed, Trump’s escalation against Petro could backfire. Abraham said it could benefit Petro’s leftist ally and potential successor, Senator Iván Cepeda, by reinforcing narratives of foreign interference and external pressure. “In that sense,” Abraham said, “the most rational course for Trump would be to politically weaken Petro, make him appear weak or isolated before the end of his term, rather than push him into a scenario of full-scale confrontation.”

For Petro, however, the White House meeting also presents an opportunity. The Colombian president could use the platform to highlight what he sees as the central achievement and guiding principle of his presidency: a commitment to peace after decades of internal armed conflict.

Since taking office in 2022, Petro has made his so-called “total peace” policy the centerpiece of his administration. The initiative has involved reopening negotiations with the National Liberation Army, seeking ceasefires with armed groups and pushing for the dismantling of criminal economies tied to drug trafficking and illegal mining. Petro has consistently framed dialogue and de-escalation as necessary steps toward lowering homicide rates and addressing the root causes of violence, even as armed groups have continued to expand or consolidate territorial control in parts of the country.

That approach, however, has placed Petro on a collision course with Washington. U.S. officials remain skeptical of negotiations with armed groups and increasingly alarmed by the expansion of criminal economies in Colombia’s border regions, where state presence is weak and armed actors wield significant power.

Particular concern has focused on Colombia’s northeastern Catatumbo region, a volatile border area with Venezuela. Armed groups linked to the cocaine trade have expanded their control there, triggering waves of displacement and deepening humanitarian pressures. Catatumbo is considered a strategic corridor for drug flows toward Venezuela, making it a focal point for U.S. counternarcotics priorities and a likely flashpoint in discussions between Washington and Bogotá.

Before the recent diplomatic thaw, Trump had publicly described Petro as “a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States,” remarks that sparked alarm in Colombia about the possibility of a U.S. intervention similar to the one carried out against Maduro. In 2025, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Petro and several members of his inner circle, designating him under counternarcotics-related authorities and placing him on the so-called “Clinton List.” The move followed Petro’s remarks at the United Nations General Assembly, where he described the United States as “an accomplice to genocide.”

“These moves confirm that Trump approaches Latin America in a highly personalistic and coercive way,” Abraham said. “He is accustomed to pressuring countries into political submission — whether by promising economic benefits, backing favored candidates or threatening sanctions.”

While that strategy has proven effective elsewhere in the region, analysts note Colombia presents a different challenge. Petro has few personal or business ties to the United States and limited incentives to align himself with Trump beyond pragmatic necessity. Even so, the very fact of the White House meeting signals a broader shift in how U.S. power is being exercised in the hemisphere.

With both Trump and Petro known for unpredictability and improvisation in public speech, the outcome of the meeting is difficult to foresee. Abraham said the encounter itself is emblematic of a broader trend in U.S. foreign policy.

“It points to something broader,” he said. “An extreme centralization of diplomacy, security and defense in the U.S. presidency.”

Lucía Cholakian Herrera is a Courthouse News correspondent based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Follow @luciacholakian