Pennsylvania supports Shapiro as governor, not so much as potential president

(CN) — Pennsylvania voters largely approve of the performance of first-term Governor Josh Shapiro, who has announced his bid for reelection in 2026 and is considered to be a potential presidential candidate in 2028. But amid speculation about a possible White House run, support from his constituents appears to erode when asked if Shapiro would make a good president. 

According to a Quinnipiac University poll of 836 registered voters released Wednesday, Shapiro’s gubernatorial approval ratings remain robust at 56% approval versus 29% disapproval, representing a slight dip from 60% in October 2025. Democrats rally around him with 90% support, while independents give a more tempered 49% nod, and Republicans largely disapprove at 58%. 

This solid base translates to a commanding lead in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial matchup against Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, where poll results show Shapiro garners 55% to Garrity’s 37%. The divide sharpens along party lines: Democrats back Shapiro 97-1, Republicans favor Garrity 82-12, and independents lean Shapiro 51-34. Gender gaps emerge, too, with women favoring Shapiro 63-33 compared to a closer 48-42 split for men. Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3. 

Yet, when eyes turn to the White House, enthusiasm for Shapiro appears to wane. Only 40% of Pennsylvanians believe Shapiro would make a good president, against 43% who disagree. Democrats are optimistic at 69%, but Republicans overwhelmingly reject the idea at 74%, and independents split 32-44 in favor of no. 

Shapiro is an attorney who previously served as a county commissioner and state representative before being elected to serve two terms as state attorney general. He won the 2022 gubernatorial election with 56.5% of the vote. In a statement accompanying the poll, Quinnipiac University Poll Analyst Tim Malloy said while Shapiro maintains “solid numbers as governor,” the results were “not exactly a ringing endorsement” for a potential presidential campaign. 

Shifting to federal figures, Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman maintains 46% approval, buoyed by an unusual 73% from Republicans despite his Democratic affiliation, while Democrats are cooler at 22% approval and 62% disapproval. Independents approve 48-37. Newcomer Republican Senator Dave McCormick, who has been in office for just over a year, fares at 37% approval, with strong Republican backing (64%) but Democratic rejection (54% disapproval). 

President Donald Trump’s numbers reflect a polarized state: 40% approve of his job performance (down from 43% in October), with 55% disapproving. On the economy, approval slips to 39%, though Republicans laud him at 90% overall and 85% on economics. Democrats near-universally disapprove (96% overall, 95% on economy), and independents hover at 32% approval. Gender differences show men slightly more approving (43% overall, 45% economy) than women (36% and 33%).

Economic perceptions offer a brighter spot amid national woes. A surprising 28% see the economy improving (up from 26% in 2024), though 47% say it’s worsening. Republicans are buoyant (65% better), Democrats pessimistic (80% worse) and independents mixed (22% better, 49% worse). Personally, 40% feel financially better off than last year, led by Republicans at 69%, while Democrats lag at 18%. Ratings deem the economy “good” for 34% but “poor” for 31%.

On social issues, immigration divides starkly: 56% view the Trump administration’s approach to immigrants in the country illegally as too harsh, with Democrats at 93% and women at 62%. Yet, 56% prefer a pathway to legal status over deportation (34%), with Democrats (93%) and women (58%) leading the charge. 

Consensus emerges in the classroom: 71% support banning cellphones in K-12 schools, including 65% of parents.

“Turn them off and stow them away, say a large majority of voters, along with parents who want their kids’ cellphones to go dark during school hours,” Malloy offered. 

Raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour won 66% support in the poll, with Democrats at 95%. Legalizing recreational marijuana garners 56% support, though Republicans oppose 64%. Finally, NIMBYism reigns on AI data centers: 68% oppose one in their community, with Democrats at 81% and women at 75%, prompting Malloy’s observation that “AI’s future faces backyard resistance.”

Finally, the poll captured Pennsylvania’s pulse as midterms loom, indicating 49% prefer Democratic House control over 43% Republican and hinting at the battleground state’s pivotal role in the country’s larger political narrative.

Shapiro did not reply to a request for comment.

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