Sidebar: Predicting the future

In our second episode this season, we dive into the high-stakes world of online wagering. We trace the path of online sports betting from offshore sites like the World Sports Exchange to the landmark 2018 U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Murphy v. NCAA, which dismantled the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act ban on sports gambling and launched a billion-dollar industry.

What was once a legal grey area has moved into the mainstream, as betting doesn't stop with sports and has led to the rise of digital prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, where stats nerds and political junkies trade futures contracts on real-world outcomes on everything from Billboard charts to the next occupant of the Oval Office. Are these digital markets the new YouGov poll, or just a gamified version of the public square?

These markets often beat traditional polling by aggregating real-time data and financial incentives, but are they free from their users' biases?

Special guests:

— Seth Shankle, avid sports bettor

— Koleman Strumpf, professor of economics at Wake Forest University

— Tom Miller, faculty director of the data science program at Northwestern University and operator of The Virtual Tout

Sidebar tackles the top stories you need to know from the legal world. Join reporters Hillel Aron, Kirk McDaniel, Amanda Pampuro, Kelsey Reichmann and Josh Russell as they take you in and out of courtrooms in the U.S. and beyond and break down developments to help you understand how they affect your day-to-day life.

This episode was produced by Kirk McDaniel. Intro music by The Dead Pens. A transcript is available.

Editorial staff is Ryan Abbott, Sean Duffy and Jamie Ross.

Taking a gamble on online wagering:

• Ho-Chunk Nation accuses Kalshi of engaging in illegal sports betting
• Federal judge opens door to election gambling
• Las Vegans go all in on sports betting