Texans head to the polls for high-stakes US Senate primary

As lawmakers, Talarico and Crockett share a lot in common. Both began their political careers in the Texas House of Representatives and are rising stars in the Democratic Party. They support progressive policies, including restoring nationwide abortion rights and reining in Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers.   

Since Crockett was elected to Congress in 2022, she has stood out as an aggressive foe to Republicans. Her viral verbal sparring matches with Republican colleagues on the House Oversight Committee have gotten the attention of both parties, as well as the president, who has made disparaging comments about her.

Talarico has also cultivated an image as an opponent to GOP priorities during his time in the Texas House of Representatives. Last year, he became the face of Texas House Democrats' fight against bills that sought to place the Ten Commandments in classrooms and create a school voucher program. During those fights, and in his campaign for U.S. Senate, Talarico has used his background as a former public school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian during fierce debates and rallies.

Matt Angle, founder and director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic communications and research committee, said the candidates’ strategies set them apart. 

“Crockett’s underlying theory is that she can expand or grow the electorate," said Angle. “Her track record has not demonstrated that she expanded the electorate as a member of Congress or in the Legislature, but that is her pitch now.

“James has taken a different approach, one that has worked in other competitive races in Texas, and that is to try to connect with and create a bond with base supporters, but also open up your campaign to other voters, and to ask for the support of all voters across the spectrum."

Talarico faced controversy in early February after a TikTok influencer claimed the representative referred to former Dallas Congressman Colin Allred as a “mediocre Black man” during a private conversation. Allred, who initially was in the race for U.S. Senate before dropping out to run for his old congressional seat, said on social media that Talarico should not be the party’s nominee and encouraged voters to back Crockett. Talarico said in a statement that the influencer mischaracterized their conversation and that he found Allred’s Senate campaign mediocre and would never attack him based on race.

“People who are stimulated one way or the other by that comment probably had already made up their mind and are not going to change it,” Angle said.

Just as in the Republican contest, Talarico and Crockett are locked in a close race. The University of Houston poll found Crockett led Talarico 47% to 39%. However, an Emerson College poll from Jan. 15 had Talarico leading Crockett 47% to 38%.

While the U.S. Senate race has garnered much of the media's attention, political watchers also have their eyes on voter turnout under the state’s newly drawn congressional map. The GOP-controlled Legislature redrew the map last summer to increase chances of flipping five seats currently held by Democrats. Significant changes impacted districts on the Texas-Mexico border, where Republicans made great inroads with Hispanic voters in the 2024 election.  

Angle and Steinhauser will be watching to see if Hispanic voters continue this trend toward Republicans, or if they choose to participate in Democratic primaries instead. Polling suggests the Trump administration is losing support among the voting group due to its approach to immigration and the economy. 

“I think it's important to take a look at Hispanics and see whether or not their numbers in the Democratic primary start to level off or maybe even increase,” Angle said.

Two South Texas races that could provide insight are Congressional Districts 28 and 34, seats currently held by Democrats Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez Jr. of Corpus Christi, respectively. Both districts were redrawn last year to preserve Republicans' gains in the region.

Cuellar and Gonzalez are favored to win their primaries as they have the most resources and name recognition. In District 28’s Republican primary, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina is running against Eileen Day, a relatively unknown candidate. Tijerina, who changed his affiliation from Democrat to Republican in 2024, got Trump’s endorsement in the race, giving him an edge.

Despite District 34’s crowded Republican primary, two candidates have emerged as frontrunners: Eric Flores, an Army veteran and lawyer, and Mayra Flores, who briefly represented the area from 2022 to 2023 before being ousted by Gonzalez. Between the two, who share no relation, Eric Flores is favored to win as he has received Trump’s endorsement.

If Democratic turnout, especially with Hispanics, is high, Jillson believes it could put Republicans in a tough position where they may need to work harder to defend districts in the region currently held by Republicans.

Replacing Paxton

Voters will also select which candidates will go head-to-head in the race to succeed Paxton as attorney general.

Republicans will choose between four-term Congressman Chip Roy, Galveston State Senator Mayes Middleton, Houston State Senator Joan Huffman and former U.S. Department of Justice Assistant Attorney General Aaron Reitz.

Polling from the University of Houston found 33% intended to vote for Roy, with Middleton coming in second at 23%, Huffman in third with 13% and Reitz at the bottom with 6%.

“Chip has been around politics a long time, a very talented, very principled guy,” Steinhauser said. “He has not always seen eye to eye with the president on things, so that can create challenges, but I think Chip’s got a lot of talent. Mayes Middleton is very capable, strong conservative and really understands where the Republican base is. So, if I had to bet, he would be in that runoff with Chip.”

Three candidates have thrown their hats in for the Democratic nomination: Dallas State Senator Nathan Johnson, former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski and former U.S. Assistant Attorney Tony Box. Of the Democratic primary voters polled by the University of Houston, 25% said they intended to vote for Johnson, with 22% and 13% saying they planned to vote for Jaworski and Box, respectively.

Angle said he could see Box forcing the race to a runoff where Johnson could likely secure the nomination.

“I see Nathan Johnson is probably having the strongest hand, because he sits in a Senate district in Dallas County, in which he's very well liked,” Angle explained. “It serves as a real base voting block, whereas Jaworski is not in public office, and does not have a voting block to pull from.”

Now, it is up to Texas voters to make their choice. Early voting runs through Feb. 27, with the primaries fast approaching on March 3. Voters can check their registration status, look up sample ballots and find their nearest polling location at VoteTexas.gov.

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